IPO to cool down?After the new rules of inquiry quotation agencies down about 16%, more difficult to get revenue decline, who in the exit?

2022-07-07 0 By

Since the beginning of this year, a total of 14 science and technology innovation board enterprises have been issued and listed.Brokerage China reporters noted that an average of 416 institutional investors participated in the online inquiries of the 14 companies.Non-independent this year, since the registration system inquiry new rules, the average is only 423 institutional investors to participate in the inquiry.Before that, the average number of institutional investors involved in the science and technology innovation board net inquiry is about 500.In other words, about 16% of institutional investors have exited the ipo offline business.For the reasons for these investors to exit, the interviewed people to the brokerage China reporter analysis of the reasons may be two: on the one hand, the phenomenon of new shares broken more and more frequently, hit the new yield decreased;On the other hand, the difficulty of online ipo listing has increased a lot, the listing rate has decreased, and some investors who lack pricing ability have begun to leave.So far this year, a total of 14 companies listed on the science and Technology Innovation Board.In the pricing process of these enterprises, an average of 416 institutional investors participated in the offline inquiry stage.There were 440 institutional investors participating in the largest one, and only 359 institutional investors participating in the least one.The average number of institutional investors participating in book-building is about the same as it has been since the new rules were introduced last year.Data from Wind show that since October last year, the average number of investors participating in the board companies inquiry is about 423.Before the inquiry new rules for a period of time, the number of investors involved in inquiry is about 500.This shows that some investors have withdrawn from the new stock inquiry business.In terms of the types of investors, there is little change in type B investors, while both A and C investors have A certain degree of decline.It is understood that in the online inquiry, public funds, social security funds, pensions, enterprise annuity funds and insurance funds for class A investors;Qfii funds are class B investors;All offline investors that do not belong to class A or class B shall be class C investors.Quotation shortlisted difficulty increased September 18 last year, new shares “inquiry new rules” issued.”New Rules for inquiry” will be the highest quotation when inquiry excluded proportion of the former “not less than 10%” adjusted to “not more than 3%”, in practice is generally 1%.After excluding the highest quotation, it shall disclose the median and weighted average of the remaining quotation of offline investors after excluding the highest part of quotation, as well as the median and weighted average of the remaining quotation of public offering products, social security funds and pensions, and the lowest price of the four numbers shall be referred to as “the lowest of the four values”.When the price exceeds the “low of the four values”, delay is required.The new regulations have effectively cracked down on gang-held price pressures.Cicc research report said that since 2021, the price concentration of offline institutions rose first and then fell;After the new rules, the overall price concentration is significantly alleviated, the price game is enhanced, the number of effective prices from single digits to more than 100, in December 2021, close to 200.The increase of new share price range, also increased the difficulty of online investors to apply for new shares.After the new rules, the difficulty of the quotation is significantly increased, and the average finalist rate in October and November is only 64%.Brokerage Chinese reporters noted that some new offer shortlisted rate even less than 30 percent.”Now it is a test of institutional investors’ research pricing ability. In fact, in many cases of new shares, it can be found that institutional investors’ pricing of the same stock varies greatly.Take Hemai Shares as an example, some investors bid dozens of yuan, some investors bid six or seven hundred, the difference is nearly 10 times.”A brokerage analyst to brokerage China reporters said.’This obviously increases the difficulty of getting in,’ the analyst said. ‘If you don’t have the pricing power, you can’t get new shares.’Some investors used to get in with a group offer, but now that doesn’t work, there may be some institutional investors pulling out of the market.Deppon Securities believes that after the rule change, ipo pricing to market a big step forward, hit the new income distribution from bo shortlisted to research allocation, ecological changes will also affect the participant structure.It is expected that the return enhancement products will continue to participate, and the absolute return investors, who are the main source of investment income, will gradually withdraw.In the neutral case, the proportion of class A investors withdrawing accounts is about 4%, and the proportion of Class C investors withdrawing accounts is about 10%.Under different scenario assumptions, the total scale of affected funds is about 140.3 billion yuan to 374 billion yuan, and the scale of affected equity funds is about 57 billion yuan to 146.5 billion yuan.Play new rate of return is also declining on the one hand is the net play new shortlisted difficulty in increasing;On the other hand, with the increase of new shares broken, hit the new yield is also falling.Guoyuan securities reported that the new rules after the new issue of broken phenomenon frequency.More market-oriented pricing has led to the environment of “underpricing” issuance in the past to obtain stable excess returns. The market has not paid for the “high price”, and the market game and equilibrium mechanism are more effective.And as the pricing center of the promotion, it is easier to break hair.In addition, the average first-day rise and fall of new shares decreased significantly, and the first-day rise and fall of the Science and Technology Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Board decreased by 70% compared with the average rise before the new rules.Looking to the future, Guoyuan securities, from the perspective of new stock reserves, the reform of the registration system to accelerate the rhythm of new issues.In terms of the number and size of issues, the stock of new shares is sufficient to provide continuous incremental earnings;From the income comparison, the yield will certainly decline compared with previous years, the previous stable issuance premium income has been weakened.But in this environment, THE HIGH efficiency of the BSE issuance, is expected to become a new growth point.At the same time, the release pace of science and Technology Innovation Board + GEM is accelerated and the success rate is significantly improved. It is also expected that the profits will gradually improve after the “adaptation period” of the new regulations.